ANALISIS KAUSALITAS PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DAN JUMLAH PENDUDUK MISKIN DI INDONESIA

Abstract

The main objective of this thesis is to test and analyze the causality betweeneconomics growth and the number of poor people in Indonesia. This study aimsto answer the following three main questions: First, Is there any causalitybetween economics growth with the number of national’s poor people inIndonesia? Second, Is there any causality between economics growth with thenumber of Java island’s poor people in Indonesia? And Third, Is there anycausality between economics growth with the number of outside Java Island’spoor people in Indonesia. The data by using in this thesis are secondary datawhich form in time series data (1996-2008). The tool of analysis that used inthis research to see the direction of causality is Granger Causality-Test. GrangerCausality-Test between economics growth and the number of poor people inIndonesia has shown that there’s no causality between economics growth andthe number of poor people in Indonesia. For economics growth and the numberof national’s poor people in Indonesia has shown that there’s no causalityamong both. It is also for the answer of the second question, between theeconomics growth and the number of Java island’s poor people in Indonesiathere’s no causality. And for the answer of the third question, betweeneconomics growth and the outside Java island’s poor people in Indonesiathere’s also no causality. So that the reduction of the number of poor peoplewas not affecting the increasing of economics growth.