Bankruptcy Prediction of Industrial Industry in the UK

Wong Ming Nok

Abstract


We make comparison between 6 models including (1) Altman’s (1968) z-score; (2) Model 1: z-score model with adjusted coefficients; (3) Model 2: z-score model with modified variables; (4) Model 3: dynamic logic model; (5) Merton distance to default (DD) model (Bharath & Shumway, 2008) and (6) back-propagation network model (Lippman, 1987). We assess the relative information content of these models regarding their bankruptcy prediction capability. Our tests show that dynamic logic model and DD model both provide significantly more information than the others while DD model has the highest prediction accuracy in the out of sample test. It is also worth noticing that altering coefficients and adjusting variables of the original z-score model could not significantly improve the predictive power of z-score model regarding companies in the industrial industry in the UK.

 


Keywords


Bankruptcy, Altman, Z-score, Dynamic Logic Model, DD Model, Back-propagation network model

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Sriwijaya International Journal of Dynamic Economics and Business
Jl. Srijaya Negara Gedung Fakultas Ekonomi Lt.3
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Sriwijaya
Bukit Besar, Palembang, Sumatera Selatan, Indonesia, 30139
Email: sijdeb@unsri.ac.id


p-ISSN: 2581-2904 | e-ISSN: 2581-2912


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Sriwijaya International Journal of Dynamic Economics and Business by http://ejournal.unsri.ac.id/index.php/sijdeb is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.


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