Investigating the Impact of Indonesia-Turkey CEPA and Factors influencing Indonesian Export Performance

Arif Darmawan, Muhammad Husaini, Roby Rakhmadi, Ghania Atiqasani


The Indonesia-Turkey Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IT-CEPA) is not solely about a trade agreement between the two countries but is a partnership and collaboration so that the people of the two countries can benefit from bilateral cooperation. This study aims to investigate the impact of IT-CEPA, foreign direct investment (FDI), inflation, natural resource rents, and government effectiveness on Indonesian exports to Turkey. The approach in this study applies a linear regression model from 2000-2020 sourced from the World Bank and The Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC). The findings of this study indicate that foreign direct investment and government effectiveness have a positive sign and have a significant effect on Indonesian exports to Turkey. Meanwhile, IT-CEPA has a negative and significant sign on Indonesian exports to Turkey. However, inflation and natural resource rents do not have a significant effect on Indonesia's exports to Turkey. The implication of this study is that policy makers must pay attention to governance related to the implementation of economic partnership agreements between Indonesia and trading partner countries, especially in increasing Indonesia's exports to trading partner countries.


IT-CEPA, FDI, inflation, natural resource rents, government effectiveness, exports

Full Text:



Achandi, E. L. (2011). Effect of foreign direct investments on export performance in Uganda. Uganda: Makerere University

Agung, A. S., Ishak, Z., Asngari, I., & Bashir, A. (2019). The effect of ASEAN-Korea free trade agreement (AKFTA) on Indonesia trade: A gravity model approach. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 17(1), 1-7.

Anderson, J. E., & Marcouiller, D. (2002). Insecurity and the Pattern of Trade: An Empirical Investigation. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 84(2), 342–352.

Anggraeni, P., Daniels, P., & Davey, P. (2017). The Contribution of Natural Resources on Economic Welfare in Indonesia. Jurnal Perencanaan Pembangunan: The Indonesian Journal of Development Planning, 1(3), 210–223.

Ardiyanti, S. T. (2015). Dampak Perjanjian Perdagangan Indonesia - Jepang (Ijepa) Terhadap Kinerja Perdagangan Bilateral. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 9(2), 129–151.

Argentiero, A., Cerqueti, R., & Sabatini, F. (2021). Does social capital explain the Solow residual? A DSGE approach. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 58, 35–53.

Astriyany, A., & Takahashi, S. (2021). Trade Liberalization, Foreign Direct Investment Liberalization, and Wage Inequality in Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi & Kebijakan Publik, 12(1), 1–13.

Avivi, M. S. Y. (2020). Kepentingan Indonesia dalam kerja sama Bilateral dengan Jepang Studi KASUS: Indonesia-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (IJEPA). Paradigma POLISTAAT: Jurnal Ilmu Sosial Dan Ilmu Politik, 3(1), 49–61.

Bappenas RI. (2021). Perkembangan Ekonomi Indonesia dan Dunia. Jakarta: Bappenas.

Benny, J. (2013). Ekspor Dan Impor Pengaruhnya Terhadap Posisi Cadangan Devisa di Indonesia. Jurnal Riset Ekonomi, Manajemen, Bisnis Dan Akuntansi, 1(4), 1406–1415.

Cahyaningtyas, D. P., & Aminata, J. (2020). Analisis Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Perdagangan Indonesia Dengan Negara-Negara Anggota APEC. Jurnal Dinamika Ekonomi Pembangunan, 3(3), 219–233.

De Groot, H. L. F., Linders, G.-J., Rietveld, P., & Subramanian, U. (2004). The Institutional Determinants of Bilateral Trade Patterns. KYKLOS: International Review for Social Science, 57(1), 103–123.

Dritsakis, N. 2004. A Causal Relationship between Inflation and Productivity: An Empirical Approach for Romania. American Journal of Applied Sciences, 1(2), 121–128.

Haq, G. (2012). Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Exports – A Case Study of Pakistan. Sarhad University of Science and Information Technology, Pakistan: University Town Peshawar

Ilmas, N., Amelia, M., & Risandi, R. (2022). Analysis of the Effect of Inflation and Exchange Rate on Exports in 5-Year Asean Countries (Years 2010–2020). Jurnal Ekonomi Trisakti, 2(1), 121–132.

Ingot, S. R., & Hastjarjo, R. M. (2017). Analisis Dampak Liberalisasi Perdagangan Barang pada Perundingan Indonesia–EU CEPA terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 11(2), 123-142.

Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., & Mastruzzi, M. (2010). The Worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and Analytical Issues (No. 5430; Issue September). Washington, D.C: The World Bank

Krugman, P.R., Obstfeld, M., & Melitz, M.J. (2015). International Economics: Theory and Policy, (8th edition). London: Pearson.

Mahadiansar, M., Setiawan, R., Darmawan, E., & Kurnianingsih, F. (2021). Realitas Perkembangan Investasi Asing Langsung di Indonesia Tahun 2019. Matra Pembaruan, 5(1), 65–75.

Mukhtarov, S., Alalawneh, M. M., Ibadov, E., & Huseynli, A. (2019). The impact of foreign direct investment on exports in Jordan: An empirical analysis. Journal of International Studies, 12(3), 38–47.

Statista Research Department. (2022). Natural resources in Indonesia - Statistics & Facts. Report series in Statista Research Department

Nairobi, N., & Respitasari, R. (2021). Public Infrastructure and Economic Growth in the Local Region. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 19(1), 51–60.

Narayan, Paresh and Smyth, Russell. (2011). The Effect of Inflation and Real Wages on Productivity: New Evidence from a Panel of G7 Countries. Applied Economics, 41(1), 1285– 1291.

Njong, A.M. & Tchakount’e, R. (2011). Investigating the effects of foreign direct investment on export growth in Cameroon. Faculty of Economics and Management, Cameroon: University of Dschang.

Pontes, J. P., & Pires, A. J. G. (2021). A geographical theory of (De)industrialization. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 59, 567-574.

Purusa, N. A., & Istiqomah, N. (2018). Impact of FDI, COP, and Inflation to Export in Five ASEAN Countries. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan, 19(1), 94.

Pujiati, R., Firdaus, M., Adhi, A. K., & Brummer, B. (2014). The Impact of Regional Trade Agreements to The Commodity Trade Flows (Case Study: International Palm Oil Trade). Forum Agribisnis: Agribusiness Forum, 4(2), 193-206.

Rusmin, J. H., Suryadi, A., & Abdullah, N. (2021). Analisis Proses Perundingan Kerja Sama IA-CEPA (Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement) Tahun 2013-2018. Hasanuddin Journal of International Affairs, 1(2). 134-153.

Saimul, & Darmawan, A. (2020a). Trade Openness Effect on Provincial Economic Growth in Indonesia. WIGA Jurnal Penelitian Ilmu Ekonomi, 10(2), 87–100.

Saimul, & Darmawan, A. (2020b). Understanding Causality Relation among FDI, Foreign Trade and Economic Growth. Economics Development Analysis Journal, 9(4), 414–426.

Selim, N., Reci, K. & Sadiku, L. (2016). The impact of FDI on the export performance: Empirical evidence for Western Balkan countries. ILIRIA International Review, 1(1), 57-66.

Setyastuti, R., Adiningsih, S., & Widodo, T. (2018). The Role of Governance Quality in Increasing Intra-ASEAN Trade. (MPRA Paper No. 85258).

Sinn, H-W. (2014). Austerity, Growth, and Inflation: Remarks on the Eurozone's Unresolved Competitiveness Problem. The World Economy 37(1), 1-13.

Sonny, S. (2020). Indonesia di Tengah Himpitan Perang Dagang Amerika Serikat dan China. Jurnal Renaissance, 5(1), 617-623.

Taufiqqurrachman, F., & Handoyo, R. D. (2021). Analisis Dampak IC-CEPA terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 15(1), 27–50.

Wang, Y. (2020). Causes of U.S.-China trade imbalances: a review. Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, 13(1), 37-44.

Wibowo, D. (2015). Pengaruh Pendapatan Per Kapita, Economic Growth Rate, Economic Structure, dan Tax Rate Terhadap Tax Ratio Pada Negara-Negara Oecd Dan Indonesia. Jurnal Akuntansi Universitas Jember, 11(1), 45-61.

World Trade Organization. (2012). Trade in Natural Resources. WTO Public Forum 2011, 73–100.

World Trade Organization. (2021). Economic Resilience and Trade. Jenewa: World Trade Organization.

Wuri, J. (2018). Fluktuasi Kurs Valuta Asing Di Beberapa Negara Asia Tenggara. EXERO: Journal of Research in Business and Economics, 1(1), 1–22.

Yuliani, F., Siregar, H., Widyastutik, W., & Rifin, A. (2019). The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment Spillover, Technology and Firm Size on the Productivity of Domestic Firm in Food Industry. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 9(3), 287–296.

Zulfira, R. D. (2019). Dampak Hubungan Bilateral Indonesia Dengan Jepang Sebelum Dan Sesudah Indonesia-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (IJEPA). Jurnal Dinamika Ekonomi Pembangunan, 2(1), 124–134.



  • There are currently no refbacks.

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan
Jalan Raya Palembang-Prabumulih Km. 32
Jurusan Ekonomi Pembangunan, Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Sriwijaya
Indralaya, Sumatera Selatan, Indonesia
Email:, Tel/Fax : (0711)580231

p-ISSN: 1829-5843, e-ISSN 2685-0788

Creative Commons License

Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan by 

is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.  

Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan is Indexed by:

Logo Google Scholar Unsri  Moraref One Search